More students to reach schools, but quality remains sceptical
Manama : The total number of students in the GCC is projected to reach 15 million by 2020, registering a CAGR of 3.6 per cent from an estimated 12.6m in 2015, according to the latest report by investment bank Alpen Capital.
Enrolments at public schools might rise only at about half the growth rate of that in private schools, the report notes.
“The number of students at private schools is projected to cross three million in 2020, displaying a 5.1pc CAGR from 2015. Enrolments at public schools are anticipated to increase at an annual average of 2.6pc to 9.3m,” it said.
The growth in student enrolment in coming years would mean that the number of schools also has to go up.
“The demand for schools in the GCC region is likely to increase at a 3pc CAGR from an estimated 43,903 in 2015 to 50,978 in 2020. This signifies a requirement of more than 7,000 schools in the next five years, most of which is anticipated in Saudi Arabia,” the report states.
Population growth in the region, projected to touch 60m in 2020, is a major reason for this high demand, it says.
Another important driver for this trend is the high income. “A high personal income level alongside a tax-free environment has resulted in additional disposable income among the GCC population. Consequently, the population displays a strong ability and willingness to spend on quality education at international schools, translating into a huge opportunity for the private players.”
Apart from this, the governments in the region have been encouraging the education sector through higher budget allocations and better policy environment, including support to the private schools.
“The share of private schools in overall K-12 enrolments increased from 19pc in 2009 to 22.1pc in 2014. The growth is likely to continue as the countries focus more on privatisation,” says the report.
However, shortage of teachers in the region is counted among the highest in the world, the report warns. This is because of the lack of inclination to teaching among the nationals and overall dearth of teachers witnessed all over the globe.
Alpen Capital warns that the opening of new institutions in the region might aggravate this situation.
“Factors such as increase in the cost of construction, long gestation period, inflation, competition, difficulty in hiring skilled teachers, and regulated fee hikes, among others, are creating operational challenges for the private education providers,” the report added.
The desire of GCC students to gain global competencies has encouraged them to seek educational facilities outside the region. Also, the rising cost of education in the region aid this trend. Worsening the situation is the inability of the education sector here to align itself with global standards. The report points out this as the reason behind the unemployment among the youth in GCC.
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