MASK, MASK, MASK

TDT | Manama

MASK, MASK, MASK. Wear it and wear it properly each time you leave your home. If you are really interested in playing a part in helping Kingdom beat this deadly pandemic, says a new report from the university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

Widespread use of masks, the new report says, has the potential to change the course of the pandemic and prevent a second wave from happening. This work supports the growing scientific consensus that cloth masks, whether homemade or commercial, can reduce respiratory virus infections by 33 per cent and slow community spread of COVID-19.

Don’t follow this and we would end up raising the death toll in Bahrain from Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic to 253 or more by November 1, says the University of Washington model. As of now, we have over 120 causalities to the deadly virus, thanks to the strong precautionary measures. This projection assumes that the current pattern of easing social distancing mandates continues and no new mandates imposed.

However, the death toll could be reduced by 37 per cent to 159, if nearly all of the residents and expatriates here wore masks in public, IHME confirms. This reduction would happen only if 95 pc of the population here always wore a mask when they were in public, the report suggests.

So, if we do nothing and continue to flout the restrictions, the daily death rate in the Kingdom will continue to increase and reach up to 10 per day. Wear the masks and follow the precautionary measures religiously, the rate would come down to less than 1. What matters here most is our way of life in society and our choices.

The report also shows how people won’t following social distancing measures will contribute to increasing the infection rate here. Daily infections IHME projects the daily infection and testing will touch 2,093, with ongoing easing and failure to follow precautionary measures by November 1. Wear face masks, and we could bring that number down to 171 per day, IHME says.

The report also projects how the increases are going to affect the hospital resources here. With no change in social behaviours, the report which identifies Bahrain as having 41 ICU beds and 992 beds in hospitals, requires to add up to 88 ICU beds and up to 451 beds in hospitals.

Invastive ventillators The Kingdom, IHME projects, would also requires up to 76 invasive ventilators by November 1, unless masks are worn properly, and social distancing measures a r e practised religiously. The report which points out that the mask use has increased dramatically globally reminds that it’s yet to reach a desirable level, citing the increases in reproductive number (R-value) as recently as two weeks ago.

Need R-value less than 1 If ‘R-value’ is greater than 1, every person infected with COVID-19 will produce more than one additional infected person. To successfully eliminate a disease from a population, R needs to be less than 1.

IHME, as per this calculation, warns, “several countries in the Middle East, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen, as well as Turkey and Iran, also had R values greater than 1 as recently as two weeks ago.” The IHME’s projections have been cited in the past by the White House and are watched closely by public health officials.

So, as the report proves, the little covering over our nose is the key to saving many lives around us, until scientists provide an effective cure. Practise wearing mask and practice wearing it on the face. Remember, it should be on the nose, not on your neck, to help reduce the spread of the pandemic.