NASA Tracking Asteroid with 3.1% Chance of Striking Earth in 2032

TDT | Manama
Email : editor@newsofbahrain.com

NASA has increased the estimated probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth on December 22, 2032, to 3.1%, up from previous calculations. With a diameter between 130 and 300 feet, the asteroid is large enough to destroy a city upon impact, releasing energy equivalent to eight megatons of TNT—500 times the force of the Hiroshima bomb.

First detected on December 27, 2023, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile, 2024 YR4 has the highest impact probability ever recorded by modern forecasting systems. Its potential risk zone spans the eastern Pacific Ocean, South America, the Atlantic, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia, putting major cities like Mumbai, Kolkata, Dhaka, Bogotá, Abidjan, Lagos, and Khartoum in potential danger.

Despite growing concerns, experts stress that the situation is not a global crisis. “This is not the dinosaur killer. This is at most dangerous for a city,” said Richard Moissl, head of ESA’s planetary defense office.

NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) continue monitoring the asteroid, with the James Webb Space Telescope set to conduct detailed observations in March 2025. Scientists hope further data will refine trajectory estimates, potentially reducing the impact risk to zero, as seen with past asteroids.

NASA has already tested asteroid deflection technology through its DART mission in 2022, and China is set to conduct a similar test in 2027. If needed, these methods could be employed to alter 2024 YR4’s path and prevent an impact.

For now, astronomers remain vigilant, emphasizing that while the risk is still low, continued observation and preparedness are crucial in planetary defense efforts.