US permission to fire missiles on Russia no game-changer: experts

AFP | Paris, France

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Permission from Washington for Ukraine to strike Russian territory with American-supplied long-range missiles may have come too late and hedged with too many restrictions to slow Moscow’s advance, experts warn. US President Joe Biden did not grant Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky’s request for deep strike capability until two months before he hands the keys to the White House to Ukraine aid sceptic Donald Trump.

The shift comes as Russian forces press their advance through eastern Ukraine, claiming on Monday they had captured a new village south of Pokrovsk -- a crucial logistics hub for the defenders. Moscow’s troops took a further 60 square kilometres (23 square miles) over the weekend, according to an AFP analysis based on data from the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW). That brought the figure for November so far to 458 square kilometres -- on track to beat October’s total of 610, a record since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

“Putin hasn’t reached the borders of the Donbas. So long as he isn’t there yet, he’ll keep pushing,” a senior French military source told AFP. “If you take a cool-headed look at the balance of forces, the advantage is with the Russian side,” the source added. “News from eastern Ukraine continues to be grim,” agreed Mick Ryan, a former Australian army general. “While no major Russian operational breakthrough is expected, the Russians have been able to sustain their pressure on the Ukrainians for about a year now and it is telling”.

Deep strikes into Russian territory with US-supplied ATACMS missiles could in theory disrupt or even push back Moscow’s advance. But “these missiles have already been in use for at least a year and a half” in Crimea and the Donbas, Moscow-based military analyst Alexander