What we know on US-brokered Black Sea ceasefire plan

TDT | Manama
Email : editor@newsofbahrain.com

Russia and Ukraine have agreed the contours of a possible ceasefire in the Black Sea in separate talks with US officials in Saudi Arabia.

Both sides have already accused the other of trying to derail the deal and the details of how the pledge to end the "use of force" in the Black Sea might work are still unclear.

Here is what we know:

- What the US said -
The White House on Tuesday said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to "ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea."

Kyiv has confirmed this.

Moscow said it agreed but set conditions first: demanding the lifting of sanctions affecting its agricultural sector -- mainly fertiliser exports -- before fulfilling any halt in strikes.

- When will it start? -
The United States has given no time frame.

Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky said he believed the agreement came into force from the moment the United States published its statement Tuesday.

The Kremlin said it will adhere to agreements when its conditions are fulfilled.

Both said they will continue talks with the United States.

- Military situation in Black Sea -
Ukraine -- which unlike Russia is not a major naval power -- has had success at sea during Moscow's offensive, with its drones pushing Russian war ships back to the eastern part of the sea.

Kyiv warned that it would consider Russian ships moving out of the eastern Black Sea as a violation of the agreement.

"In this case Ukraine will have full right to exercise right to self-defense," Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, who took part in talks, said on Tuesday.

- Collapsed grain deal -
In summer 2023, Russia pulled out of a UN-brokered deal that ensured the safe passage of ships carrying foods from the ports of Ukraine -- one of the world's breadbaskets.

Russia had complained that a separate deal meant to guarantee exports of Russian fertiliser and agricultural products, despite massive Western sanctions, was not honoured.

Since then, Ukraine has created passages for cargo ships in the western part of the Black Sea, but commercial vessels have been hit by Russia.

- Destroyed Ukrainian ports -
Moscow has also repeatedly struck Ukrainian port infrastructure, especially in Odesa, as well as grain terminals.

Kyiv's Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said this week that while Ukraine is in a "better position than the Russians" at sea militarily, it needs to save its ports that are under regular air attack.

"For us, a truce at sea means an end to the shelling of Ukraine's port infrastructure," Pletenchuk said.

Ukraine also hopes that any Black Sea agreement would also require Russia to stop launching strikes on its land from warships.

"We must get not just a cessation of attacks on our ports, but also a COMPLETE STOP OF KALIBR LAUNCHES from the Black Sea," MP Oleksiy Goncharenko has said.

- What Russia wants -
Unlike Ukraine, Russia has refused an unconditional ceasefire proposed by the United States earlier this month.

But since Donald Trump came back to power and reversed US policy on Russia, Moscow has hoped for an end of massive Western sanctions on its economy.

Russia wants the West to lift sanctions on state-owned agricultural lender Rosselkhozbank, as well as other Russian financial institutions linked to food and fertilisers.

In its statement, the United States said it will "help restore Russia's access to the world market for agricultural and fertiliser exports" as well as "enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions".

President Vladimir Putin has made regular speeches in recent weeks on the lifting of sanctions, apparently expecting Western companies to return to Russia.

- 'For Trump' -
Many on both sides have wondered how a deal on the Black Sea could bring peace any closer and whether it might just have symbolic value.

From a military angle, "the Black Sea initiative looks pointless, there are no battles there", pro-Kremlin analyst Sergei Markov said.

Trump has presented himself as the man who will end the war and is eager for results.

"This is important, before all else, for Trump," Markov said.

"He needs a success story, and the ceasefire is not working.. This is a great way of showing that there are some peace initiatives."