UK PM 'in trouble' a year on from Johnson's downfall

AFP | London                      

The Daily Tribune – www.newsofbahrain.com

Twelve months since Boris Johnson announced his resignation, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is courting disaster in coming electoral tests and struggling to honour his flagship policy promises.

In January, Sunak sought to draw a line under a long period of chaos under Johnson and his short-lived successor Liz Truss, by making five pledges to increasingly disaffected voters.

The headline pledges were to halve sky-high inflation and to stop boatloads of migrants crossing the Channel from northern France.

But at just under 10 percent, inflation remains sticky.

Rising interest rates have, according to the opposition Labour party, created a "Tory mortgage bombshell" for millions of hard-pressed home owners.

And courts have rejected the Conservative government's plan to send migrants to Rwanda.

"Those were his two signature pledges. So he's in trouble," said Tim Bale, politics professor at Queen Mary University of London and author of a new book on Tory infighting since Brexit.

"The economy seems to be out of his control at the moment. Any solution to the small boats situation seems to be a long way off too," he told AFP.

"His options are really limited."

Right-wing Conservatives and Johnson loyalists are growing ever more restive as Sunak's party, lagging by double digits to Labour, runs ever shorter on time before a general election expected next year.

An interim test comes on July 20 in by-elections for three previously rock-solid Tory constituencies, where Labour and the smaller Liberal Democrats are scenting victories.

- 'Throwing everything at it' -

One of the contests is for the northwest London seat held by Johnson before he resigned as an MP last month to avoid formal censure by the House of Commons over the "Partygate" scandal.

A year ago on July 7, the lockdown-breaking revels in Downing Street and other scandals culminated in Johnson announcing his exit as prime minister, following a cabinet revolt that was led by Sunak.

Sunak took over after the 49-day reign of Truss, who managed to crash the economy and the party's ratings with it. His approach has been to work ever harder and focus more on the details.

It isn't working. Among his other pledges, hospital waiting lists and the national debt are rising, not falling. And economic growth has flat-lined.

Grilled by a committee of senior MPs on Tuesday, Sunak denied that his government was being blown off course.

He vowed to go all the way to the UK Supreme Court to uphold the contentious Rwanda policy for migrants, pledging to challenge an appeals court setback "confidently and vigorously".

But on inflation, which is stoking the worst cost-of-living crisis in generations, the former investment banker admitted: "It's clearly proving more persistent than people anticipated."

Asked what percentage chance he put on his goal of halving inflation this year, Sunak said: "I don't have one for you. I'm working 100 percent to deliver it and we will keep doing it.

"That's all I can do, is just keep throwing everything at it."

- 'Rishi or bust' -

Johnson, Truss and Sunak have all blamed the Covid pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine for Britain's problems, while denying that any of them are linked to Brexit.

But after 13 years of Conservative rule, polls show that the excuses are wearing thin, with Labour leader Keir Starmer now the preferred prime minister in head-to-head popularity contests against Sunak.

Starmer said fallout from parliamentary probes into Johnson's misconduct, with his allies turning on Sunak, gave "further evidence of a divided party that is incapable of governing".

"This is one of the main causes of the fact that we're in this economic chaos now, and it's families that are paying the price," he said.

Optimistic Tory strategists are looking back to 1992, when a technocratic leader in John Major scored an upset election victory over Labour after Margaret Thatcher's high-octane reign.

For Bale, optimism is all that the details-orientated Sunak can rely on for now with the coming by-elections likely to spell bad news.

"The best he can do is batten down the hatches and hope for the best," he said.

But Sunak himself appears safe in 10 Downing Street until British voters get their say sometime next year.

"The vast majority of Tory MPs think it's Rishi or bust," Bale said. "Another leadership contest would make them a laughing stock."